Mobile Apps - Boom or Bust? Sherman, please set the Wayback Machine for 1994, and then 1853

In the last few days, I've seen reports that Mobile Apps are repeating the 1996 expansion, and reports that Mobile Apps don't provide a viable business model. I think that  there are elements of truth in both articles, but I don't think either is an adequate depiction of what I'm seeing. Let me see if I can explain.

Like others, I feel like I've been here before, but for me the year wasn't 1996, but 1994. That year, I was a consultant in Dallas Texas, mostly hooking up Internet connectivity and web servers for companies that nothing to do with technology. At one point I literally couldn't introduce myself to people without having them say, "Did you say that you do websites? I've got to get a website for my business. Can you help me?"

Back in the present, I've recently gotten my third phone call in as many months from a person I've never heard of, saying "I heard from (a mutual friend) that you write iPhone apps. I've got to get an iPhone app for my business. Do you think you could help me?"

Now it's definitely true that most Apps don't generate enough revenue to make back their development costs. But that's okay. In 1994 (or 1996 or 2011 for that matter) most websites don't generate enough revenue to make back their costs. And I haven't seen any evidence that people are no longer building websites. Most companies these days see having a web presence as a necessary cost of doing business. And many are starting to look upon Mobile Apps with the same thoughts.

To me, the example for making a viable business out of Mobile App development is to think not of 1996 or even 1994, but California, 1853. Gold had been discovered and the Gold Rush was on. Prospecting for gold, like the App Store, was "not a viable business." Very few of the people that went prospecting ever made a lot of money, and many of them ended up in debt. You've likely never heard of any prospectors, but you've heard of at least one viable businesses from the period: Levi Strauss & Co.

Then, as now, the people looking to strike it rich will largely fail to do so, but now, as then, a viable business can be made from providing services to the prospectors.

We have a Winner! (so far) - the Battle of the iPad Styli

A long, long time ago, I bought the first US Robotics Pilot 5000. Using Graffiti, I could actually take notes for the first time in a meeting that I wouldn't have to type in later (although I did have to correct missed letters periodically).

I used PalmOS and a Stylus to take notes up through my Kyocera 7135, which I loved. But when it died, I couldn't bring myself to get another phone with that outdated OS, so I made the jump to Windows Mobile with a Verizon xv6600 in 2004 or so. And up until recently, I still didn't have a device I could take good notes on. I still take notes writing much faster than I do typing with my thumbs, so once I got my iPad, I went looking for a way to take notes.

Turns out, I don't write very quickly with my index finger, and what I do write is even harder to read than my "normal" writing. So then, I had to look for a Stylus.

I've tried 3 so far, the Ten One Design Pogo Stylus was the first, but its tip is spongy and inexact. The Mybat Stylus Pen was even worse. It felt "sticky" - it just wouldn't glide smoothly across the surface (which might be why Amazon says so many people buy it with screen protectors (I'm not using one). Then, after a couple of months of waiting to find one with promising reviews, I found the Boxwave Capacitative iPad Stylus and it showed up yesterday. I can't think of anything I would rather have different. It's the right size, seems durable enough, is comfortable to use (at least after 1 day), takes wonderful notes in Penultimate (shown here), and has made me much more productive in OmniGraffle.

My favorite part (although I would love it even with out it) is a lanyard that has a plastic plug that holds into the headphone jack on the iPad. It keeps the stylus handy, and is far more useful that I would have expected before I used it.

There may be another stylus that comes along that I prefer, but for now, this one has won. And even if I find a better one someday, this one will still be the one that first met the requirement that it was good enough that I will stop and look for it when I don't have it handy, rather than just doing what I was going to do without it. And that's the primary bar for usability, to me.